On February 4, the New England Patriots battle the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 52. The Patriots remain solid -4.5 favorites. The money has flown to the Philadelphia Eagles, though. Since this is NFLInjury.com, I often don't write about specific games. This sight is all about fantasy football. But, when it comes to the Super Bowl, individual prop bets are all about single game fantasy stats.
That's why I've used my fantasy football experience to come up with picks for Super Bowl 52 individual player prop bets. If anyone's headed to Vegas for the big game, keep my picks in mind.
You won't hurt my feelings if you decide to go against me. Why? Most of my prop choices are based on the idea the Eagles upset the Patriots straight up in Super Bowl 52.
Super Bowl 52: Individual Player Fantasy Prop Bet Picks
I start with Super Bowl MVP. Then, I add some other top Super Bowl 52 prop bets.
Super Bowl 52 MVP – Top Choices
Eagles QB Nick Foles +400
Eagles RB LeGarrette Blount +3000
Patriots QB Tom Brady -110
Patriots WR Danny Amendola +1800
Although there's only a small chance Blount reaches 100 yards rushing, he should pick up a TD on Philadelphia's first drive. The Eagles won't change what's worked. Since everyone and their grandmother knows that Philly is going to utilize Jay Ajayi to rush the ball until they get into the red zone, it stands to reason that the New England Patriots stop Ajayi from picking up huge rushing yards. If the Patriots do that, Blount might find a way to pick up 100 yards rushing.
100 yards rushing and 2 TDs might be good enough for LeGarrette to score the Super Bowl 52 MVP this Sunday. There's even a chance LeGarrette scores 3 rushing TDs.
QB Nick Foles has a chance to win Super Bowl MVP because it's almost a given that Matt Patricia, New England's offensive coordinator, stops the Eagles' rushing attack. If the Patriots' offense scores at least 3 TDs in the first half, Foles must let it loose in the second half, or even the first half, to keep pace. Foles proved he can let it loose versus the Minnesota Vikings. He threw for 352 yards. He threw 3 TD passes. He completed close to 79% of his passes. Foles can get it done.
The Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in the NFL at stopping an opposing squad's rushing offense. The Eagles only allow 79.2 rushing yards per game on average. That's an incredible per average rush yards allowed stat. What it means is that Patriots' QB Tom Brady must throw the football.
The Patriots always throw the football. Often, though, they've got a choice. Not in Super Bowl 52. The Patriots must throw the football because they won't have success rushing the football. Brady could have a masterful outing. The odds are low, no doubt, but Terrific Tom might be worth taking the low odds. Yes, he's that great of a player.
If Brady has a fantastic day, it will most likely be because he throws the football to WR Danny Amendola. Amendola caught 11 passes for 112 yards versus the Tennessee Titans in the Patriots' 35 to 14 Divisional Round win. Versus the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC Championship, Amendola caught 7 passes for 84 yards. He also snagged both of Brady's TD passes.
Why Amendola instead of TE Rob Gronkowski? Gronk is at 9 to 1. His odds are much too low for me to even consider backing. More importantly, Gronk heads to Super Bowl 52 having suffered a concussion. He's listed as probable. Although Gronk should play, it's difficult to see Pats' offensive coordinator Josh McDaniel developing a strategy around the future NFL Hall of Fame tight-end. He's already missed too much time for McDaniel to significantly lean on him on Feb. 4.
Other Super Bowl 52 Props
Player to Score First TD
Eagles RB LeGarrette Blount +1400
Blount scored a TD in each one of the Eagles' two playoff victories. In the 15 to 10 win over Atlanta in the Divisional Round, Blount scored a TD while rushing for 2.1 yards per carry. He carried the ball 9 times for 19 yards. In the 38 to 7 NFC Championship win over the Minnesota Vikings, Blount carried the ball 6 times. He rushed for 21 yards. That's a 3.5 per yard carry average.
No worries. Once the Eagles get into the red zone, they're gong to unleash their big man. Blount's offering great odds to score the first Super Bowl 52 TD.
Player to Score 2 or More TDs
Eagles RB LeGarrette Blount +1200
Blount should be a workhorse for the Eagles once they get into the red zone. Heck, Doug Pederson's entire offensive system is based around throwing the ball and rushing Jay Ajayi until Philly gets close enough to score a TD. Once Philly is close enough, the ball heads into the giant hands of LeGarrette Blount.
Also, don't think for a moment that LeGarrette doesn't want to play well against his former teammates. There's no bad blood between Blount and the Patriots. We just know LeGarrette wants to play well.
Player to Score First Patriots TD
RB James White +650
Versus the Tennessee Titans, White was the man McDaniel went to in the Patriots' first couple of forays into the red zone. White had a monstrous Super Bowl 51. He shouldn't have as great of a Super Bowl 52. But, he'll get his hands on the football once Brady drives the Patriots beyond the Eagles' 20-yard line.
The Patriots had to play catch up to beat the Jaguars in the AFC Championship. White's game became ineffective in that one. With Gronk missing practice time due to the concussion, I'm thinking McDaniel developed some red zone plays for James White in the Super Bowl, just like he did versus the Titans. On New England's first drive, McDaniel figures to use RB Dion Lewis to pick up yardage until White's in an area where he can rush it, or catch it, for the 6 points.
Eagles QB Nick Foles Prop Bets
Total Passing Yards
Foles figures to complete passes for over 236 yards. I'm going against most everyone else who feels that RB Jay Ajayi rushes for at least 57 yards. I think Doug Pederson might throw the football to Ajayi instead of rushing it.
I'm going over 22.5 completions. Foles figures to complete at least 24 passes in this game. The Eagles have thrown to Ajayi with regularity starting in Week 16. They'll do so in Super Bowl 52.
Which Receiver Will Have the Most Yards in the Game?
Patriots WR Danny Amendola 7/1
Foles has a lot of wide receiving weapons. Nelson Agholor, Alshon Jefffery, and Torrey Smith start. Foles throws to whomever is wide-open. He also likes to throw it to Ajayi and tight-end Zach Ertz.
In two straight games, Brady has leaned on Danny Amendola. The reason is because both Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan play on the outside. Amendola plays the slot. Because Gronk takes away Philly's best slot cover safety or linebacker, Amendola figures to be open on a safety, or linebacker, or even cover corner that should have a hard time keeping him from catching Brady's passes all day.
What Will Be Greater?
Longest TD Scored in Super Bowl 52 Even
OKC PG Russell Westbrook, Points, Assists, Boards vs Lakers -140
Both the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles can strike quickly. However, the L.A. Lakers are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. This is a no-brainer pick. The only way the Oklahoma City Thunder win is if Russell scores over 30 points. He should score close to 40 versus the Lakers. How many assists will Russell garner? I'm thinking 10 to 12. Russell also grabs around 10 to 12 boards.
That's 60 combined points, rebounds, and assists. I'm not sure either defense allows their opponent's offense to get off a play that leads to a 25-yard to 30-yard TD, much less a 60-yard TD. I'm backing the best player in the NBA over the longest TD in Super Bowl 52.
Super Bowl 52 is here. Have fun and root for your team!