The Dallas Cowboys' Super Bowl Dreams last season ended in a 31 to 34 loss to Green Bay in the NFC Divisional Playoffs. Almost immediately after the loss, NFL analysts and fans declared Dallas a contender for the 2018 Super Bowl.
The Cowboys remain a solid second choice to win the Super Bowl. But, the Boys' Super Bowl odds, 8/1, in no way reflect their win total odds. There's a disconnect between the odds on the Cowboys to win the 2018 Super Bowl, and the Cowboys' win total odds.
8/1 Odds to Win the Super Bowl
Dallas opened at 10 to 1 to win Super Bowl LII. The Cowboys have gone from 10 to 1 to 8 to 1. Green Bay is the closest competitor in the NFC to Dallas' Super Bowl odds. The Packers are at 10 to 1 after opening at 12 to 1.
It appears that Super Bowl bettors remain bullish on the Dallas Cowboys. This makes sense. Dallas starting QB Dak Prescott goes into his second season. He had a tremendous rookie season. The Cowboys still have the best offensive line in football. RB Ezekial Elliott figures to be the first player taken in most NFL Fantasy Football season long drafts. If WR Dez Bryant stays healthy, he could become one of the best wide receivers in the NFL again.
Total Games Won Over/Under 9.5
But, if all that is correct, why are the Dallas Cowboys only predicted to win 9 to 10 games? More than one NFL handicapper was surprised that Vegas odds makers set the game win total on the Boys at 9.5. What this means is that if you like the Cowboys to win at least 10 games, you can bet over the total of 9.5. If Dallas wins 10, 11, 12, etc. games, you win your bet.
If you don't think the Cowboys win at least 10 games, you can bet under 9.5. If the Cowboys win less than 10 games, you win your bet. Those who love the Dallas Cowboys will bet over the total no matter the number. Those who hate Dallas will bet under the total no matter the number. Professional NFL handicappers, those who make a living betting on football, are going to bet over or under the total depending on their own research.
But, here's the thing, if Dallas is such a strong favorite to win the Super Bowl, how come their win total is under 10? At 10 wins, it's doubtful that Dallas garners the top seed in the NFC. Not only that, but 10 wins pretty much guarantees a spot in an NFC Wildcard Game.
Do you really believe that Dallas can make it all the way to the Super Bowl after having to play in Atlanta, or Green Bay, or both? I don't. That's why if I don't believe Dallas can win at least 10 games, and I'm not sure that I do, I can't bet on the Cowboys at 8 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Heck, I'm not sure if I can bet on them at 15 to 1 to win the Super Bowl.
Perhaps, the biggest question is which odds are most likely to reflect the Dallas Cowboys upcoming season? I must go with over/under 9.5 games. The NFC East should be one of the deepest divisions in football. The Giants, Eagles, and Redskins have all improved.
The 9.5 win total on the Dallas Cowboys is a fair number. The 8 to 1 odds on the Cowboys to win the Super Bowl are underlay odds. Wait until the odds drift to 20 to 1 or so before pulling the trigger on Dallas to win Super Bowl LII.