The Green Bay Packers have become hot in Super Bowl 53 futures. Green Bay is a +1000 fourth choice to win Super Bowl 53. The only teams ahead of the Packers are the New England Patriots at +400, the Philadelphia Eagles at +800, and the Pittsburgh Steelers at +800.
Green Bay's a favorite to win Super Bowl 53 even though they didn't win their division, or make the playoffs last season. Green Bay's record was 7 and 9. The Packers have a slightly better team as well as a slightly different offensive philosophy this season that could propel them to the Vince Lombardi game.
The slightly better team could also help fantasy football fans that draft Green Bay Packer players to excel in their season long fantasy leagues. Keep reading for relevant information about the Green Bay Packer skill players that are likely to have huge fantasy impacts.
NFL Fantasy: Green Bay Packers 2018 Fantasy Preview
It all starts with QB Aaron Rodgers, right? Maybe. Maybe not. Rodgers got hurt in Week 6 last season and the Packers ended up going 3 and 7 in their final 10 games. In 5 of the losses, the Packers failed to score 17 points or more. In Week 16, rival Minnesota beat the Packers at Lambeau Field 16 to 0. In Week 11, Baltimore, again at Lambeau Field, beat the Packers 23 to 0.
Green Bay was clueless without the best quarterback to ever play for them. Surprisingly, that doesn't mean Green Bay's top fantasy offensive player this season will be Aaron Rodgers.
Why QB Aaron Rodgers won't be Green Bay's top Fantasy Player in 2018
Rodgers could surprise and throw 40 TD passes along with 5,000 yards passing and less than 10 interceptions. He's certainly capable of doing that. But, the reason he most likely won't is the same reason that Super Bowl future bettors are bullish on the Packers this season.
What's that reason? The New Orleans Saints beat Green Bay 26 to 17 in Week 7. New Orleans hadn't yet gotten their superb two-headed monster rushing attack going. Still, the Saints managed 161 yards on the ground. New Orleans' philosophy, only using their hall of fame QB Drew Brees when they must, paid huge dividends for New Orleans' offense.
It saved Brees for the playoffs while allowing the Saints to rush defenses into submission. Coach Mike McCarthy has stated that they're going to copy the Saints' rushing attack. McCarthy used to call plays for the Saints' organization. He and Saints' head coach Sean Payton aren't besties. They don't hate each other, either. More importantly? Payton's new rushing philosophy on offense has already proven to be effective. So, where does that leave Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers?
Last season, Rodgers got hurt early in the loss to Minnesota in Week 6. He was on pace for at least 40 TD passes because he had thrown 16 TD passes in only 5 games played. He had thrown for over 1,670 yards in only 5 games played.
This season? If Green Bay truly duplicates the Saints' rushing attack, and it's effective the way it is for New Orleans (a big if!), Rodgers should throw between 23 and 28 TD passes. His yards might approach 4,000. There's a chance it won't eclipse 4,000.
That makes Aaron Rodgers a tough pick in any season long NFL Fantasy Football drafts at anywhere before Round 5.
Where should you draft Aaron Rodgers – Round 5 or higher
TE Jimmy Graham Might be Biggest Bust in Fantasy this Season
Although there's a great chances that Aaron Rodgers won't offer value into Round 5, the Green Bay Packers might have one of the biggest fantasy football draft busts this season in tight-end Jimmy Graham. Graham posted decent stats last season. He caught 10 TD passes. He had 57 catches for 520 yards. The problem is whether he'll score as many touchdowns as a Green Bay Packer as he did as a Seattle Seahawk.
The yardage and catches could end up being the same, which is why the question of touchdowns is so important. Why won't Graham score as many TDs this season as he did last season? Easy, the Green Bay Packers' offense is much better than Seattle's offense is.
Green Bay's got excellent skill players at both wide receiver and running back. The offensive line is decent. Aaron Rodgers can find the open man downfield because his wide receivers are more talented than Seattle had last season.
That means Graham's looks won't be close to what he saw with Russell Wilson as his quarterback. Wait on drafting Graham after you've solidified the RB and WR positions.
Where should you draft Jimmy Graham – Round 5 or higher
Green Bay Wide Receivers
Davante Adams is a good enough wide receiver that the Packers allowed Rodgers' favorite target, Jordy Nelson, to go to Oakland. Adams is now Green Bay's undisputed WR1. His 74 caches 885 yards and 10 TD catches were decent last season. This season, Davante's numbers could be much better. The reason? Any movement to a rushing attack like what the Saints' do will leave Adams in more one-on-one situations.
Sure, Green Bay must effectively rush the football. If they do, it should be close to unstoppable to keep Adams from catching over 100 passes. Michael Thomas caught 104 passes last season for 1,245 yards. He only scored 5 TDs, though.
So, if you're in a season long NFL Fantasy PPR League, Davante Adams is your guy. If you believe his TDs take a hit, maybe, consider passing in Round 2.
Green Bay's WR2, Reggie Cobb, has never lived up to his fantasy potential. He'll be a tough guy to draft anywhere before Round 6 in season long NFL Fantasy Drafts if the Packers do become a run first team. That doesn't mean you don't draft Cobb. It means you wait until drafting Cobb.
Where should you draft Davante Adams – Round 2 – Round 4
Where should you draft Reggie Cobb – Round 6 or higher
Does Green Bay have a clear-cut RB to draft?
Saints' running back starters Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara both played lights out last season. They were awesome fantasy studs. The Packers have a couple of running backs on their roster that could really excel this season. Listed first on the depth chart is Jamal Williams.
Williams produced 556 yards from 153 attempts last season. He scored 4 TDs. His per rush average was only 3.6. It's difficult to recommend drafting Jamal in Round 1 or Round 2 just because McCarthy won't wait long to pull the plug on Williams if he doesn't produce.
The running back to draft in Round 2 or Round 3 is Aaron Jones. Jones can catch the football ala the Saints' Alvin Kamara. He also averaged 5.5 yards per carry last season from 81 attempts. The problem with drafting Jones too early is that he must miss the first couple of games due to a suspension.
Ty Montgomery will get carries. He's listed third on the depth chart, though. Plus, he's proven to be injury prone.
What all of this means is that even though Aaron Jones must skip the first couple games of the regular season, he's the best Green Bay running back to draft early. Wait a few rounds before going with Williams while Montgomery is best as a Round 8 or higher pickup to stash on your bench.
When to draft Aaron Jones – Round 2 – Round 3
When to draft Jamal Williams – Round 4 or higher
When to draft Ty Montgomery – Round 8 or higher